{"id":112276,"date":"2021-07-15T21:24:16","date_gmt":"2021-07-15T20:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/?p=112276"},"modified":"2022-02-03T11:02:30","modified_gmt":"2022-02-03T11:02:30","slug":"are-we-witnessing-the-death-of-the-streaming-megahit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/are-we-witnessing-the-death-of-the-streaming-megahit\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we witnessing the death of the streaming megahit?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>MBW\u2019s Stat Of The Week is a series in which we highlight a data point that deserves the attention of the global music industry. Stat Of the Week is supported by <a class=\"link-external\" href=\"https:\/\/cinqmusic.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cinq Music Group<\/a>, a technology-driven record label, distribution, and rights management company.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>For decades, the record industry has turned its attention and investment to one thing above any other: the hit record.<\/p>\n<p>Yet new figures out of the US this week suggest that hits \u2013 as in blockbuster, industry-dominant megahits \u2013 are increasingly becoming a lesser-spotted beast.<\/p>\n<p>Despite millions more people playing music on streaming services each year, the industry&#8217;s biggest streaming hit at the mid-year point of 2021 is significantly smaller than its biggest streaming hit at the mid-year point of 2020, of 2019, and of 2018.<\/p>\n      <div class=\"mb-advert__incontent\">      <div class=\"mb-advert mb-advert__tweeny hidden-xs hidden-ms hidden-sm\" data-loaded=\"no\" data-sizes=\"992 1200 1440\" data-name=\"628x90 Sponsor banner #3 (992+1200+1440)\" data-params=\"dfp_sponsor3_628\" id=\"dfp_sponsor3_628\"><\/div>      <div class=\"mb-advert mb-advert__banner mb-advert__banner--inline hidden-xs hidden-sm hidden-md hidden-lg\" data-loaded=\"no\" data-sizes=\"480\" data-name=\"468x60 Sponsor banner #3 (480)\" data-params=\"dfp_sponsor3_468\" id=\"dfp_sponsor3_468\"><\/div>      <div class=\"mb-advert mb-advert__mobile mb-advert__mobile--inline hidden-ms hidden-md hidden-lg\" data-loaded=\"no\" data-sizes=\"320 768\" data-name=\"300x50 Sponsor banner #3 (320+768)\" data-params=\"dfp_sponsor3_300\" id=\"dfp_sponsor3_300\"><\/div>      <\/div>      \n<p>To illustrate this point, we must turn to MRC Data&#8217;s new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.billboard.com\/p\/u-s-music-mid-year-report-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">half-year industry report<\/a>, covering the US record industry in the first six months of 2021.<\/p>\n<p>MRC&#8217;s numbers show that the biggest hit of H1 2021 in the US was Olivia Rodrigo&#8217;s <em>drivers license<\/em>, which attracted 460.2 million on-demand audio streams during the six months.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s a lot of plays.<\/p>\n<p>But 460.2 million is the smallest amount of on-demand audio streams collected by the USA&#8217;s No.1 hit at the mid-year point for four years:<\/p>\n<ul><li>In the first half of 2020, Roddy Ricch&#8217;s <em>The Box<\/em> pulled in <strong>728.7 million<\/strong> audio streams in the first half of the year, according to MRC \/ Nielsen Music data.<\/li><li>The No.2 streaming track in the H1 2020 period, <em>Life Is Good<\/em>, by Future (Ft Drake), also scored more mid-year plays than <em>drivers license<\/em>, with <strong>476.2 million<\/strong>.<\/li><li>In the first half of 2019, Lil Nas X&#8217;s <em>Old Town Road<\/em> pulled in <strong>596.1 million<\/strong> audio streams.<\/li><li>And in the first half of 2018, Drake&#8217;s <em>God&#8217;s Plan<\/em> pulled in <strong>655.0 million<\/strong> audio streams.<\/li><\/ul>\n<p>You&#8217;d have to go back to H1 2017 \u2013 when Ed Sheeran&#8217;s <em>Shape Of You<\/em> ruled with<strong> 354.2 million<\/strong> streams \u2013 to find a time when the USA&#8217;s mid-year No.1 audio streaming record had more plays than <em>drivers license<\/em>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<figure class=\"mbw-articlepic mbw-articlepic--center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img  class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-80x60.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-160x120.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-320x240.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-418x314.jpg 418w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-648x486.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-836x627.jpg 836w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-1-1296x972.jpg 1296w\" data-sizes=\"auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p>This is all especially odd, of course, when you consider the massive growth in streaming&#8217;s popularity between 2017 and 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Although the latest MRC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.billboard.com\/p\/u-s-music-mid-year-report-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mid-year report<\/a> doesn&#8217;t give a <em>specific<\/em> figure for the US industry&#8217;s total audio streaming volume in H1 2021, it does reveal that this number was up by approximately 15% on the same figure in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>A prior MRC Data report shows that US on-demand audio streaming mid-year volume stood at 419.8 billion in H1 2020&#8230; meaning we can be confident that the H1 2021 equivalent number weighs in at around 482.8 billion.<\/p>\n<p>That 482.8 billion number, in turn, is up 80% on the total amount of on-demand audio streams recorded by MRC \/ Nielsen in H1 2018 (268.2 billion).<\/p>\n<p>And yet the number of streams racked up by the No.1 midyear audio streaming record in 2018 (<em>God&#8217;s Plan<\/em>, 655m) was nearly 200 million streams bigger than the biggest record in H1 2021 (<em>drivers license<\/em>, 460.2m).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<figure class=\"mbw-articlepic mbw-articlepic--center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img  class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-80x60.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-160x120.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-320x240.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-418x314.jpg 418w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-648x486.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-836x627.jpg 836w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-7-1296x972.jpg 1296w\" data-sizes=\"auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p>So what&#8217;s going on?<\/p>\n<p>Someone might reasonably argue that the &#8220;death of the megahit?&#8221; narrative here actually has a simple explanation: Olivia Rodrigo&#8217;s <em>drivers license<\/em> simply isn&#8217;t as popular as the other tracks mentioned above. It&#8217;s a big hit, for sure \u2013 it&#8217;s just not a <em>megahit<\/em> like <em>God&#8217;s Plan, Old Town Road,<\/em> or<em>The Box<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>One might also consider the fact that H1 2021 was mired in Covid lockdowns (and related uncertainty) \u2013 not exactly ideal conditions for superstars to release a plethora of chart-topping bangers.<\/p>\n<p>Yet digging deeper into the numbers suggests whispers of &#8220;the death of the megahit&#8221; may actually reflect a longer-term, empirical trend \u2013 rather than a mere pandemic anomaly.<\/p>\n<p>Below, MBW has calculated the cumulative volume of on-demand audio streams shared by the USA&#8217;s Top 10 audio streaming hits in the first half of each year, as tabulated by MRC Data \/ Nielsen Music.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<figure class=\"mbw-articlepic mbw-articlepic--center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img  class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-80x60.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-160x120.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-320x240.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-418x314.jpg 418w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-648x486.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-836x627.jpg 836w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-8-1296x972.jpg 1296w\" data-sizes=\"auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p>As you can see, this cumulative mid-year Top 10 figure hit a peak in H1 2019 \u2013 3.81 billion audio streams \u2013 following sustained year-on-year rises in each prior year.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, for the first time, this number fell slightly.<\/p>\n<p>And in H1 2021, even with<em> drivers license<\/em> doing its best to pull the market upwards, it&#8217;s fallen again \u2013 this time by 17%, or a whopping 647 million plays, year on year.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h6><span style=\"color: #FF7D00;\">Stat of the Week: <span style=\"color: #000000;\">The cumulative mid-year market share of the USA&#8217;s Top 10 on-demand audio streaming tracks has been slashed in half over the past three years.<\/span><\/span><\/h6>\n<hr \/>\n<p>In our next graph, we show how these cumulative Top 10 audio stream numbers fare as a market share percentage of the USA&#8217;s <em>total<\/em> audio streaming volume in each half-year period.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s a very clear pattern.<\/p>\n<p>Between H1 2018 (1.26%) and H1 2021 (0.64%), audio streaming&#8217;s Top 10 tracks have seen their joint mid-year market share slashed in half.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<figure class=\"mbw-articlepic mbw-articlepic--center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img  class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-80x60.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-160x120.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-320x240.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-418x314.jpg 418w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-648x486.jpg 648w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-836x627.jpg 836w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2021\/07\/Image-1-6-1296x972.jpg 1296w\" data-sizes=\"auto\"><\/a><\/figure>\n<hr \/>\n<p>With catalog music <a href=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/over-66-of-all-music-listening-in-the-us-is-now-of-catalog-records-rather-than-new-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">significantly growing its US market share in H1 2021<\/a>, are we witnessing a seismic shift in the make-up of the record business in the world&#8217;s biggest market?<\/p>\n<p>Or will this prove to be more of a Covid-inspired blip, one which will be corrected as some of the world&#8217;s biggest stars (Ed Sheeran and Drake included) inevitably release hit singles in the second half of this year?<\/p>\n<p>The global music rights industry \u2013 not to mention its most powerful investors \u2013 will be watching closely to find out.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"color: #FF7D00;\"><strong><figure class=\"mbw-articlepic mbw-articlepic--right\"><img  class=\"lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2020\/07\/Cinq-80x80.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2020\/07\/Cinq-160x160.jpg 160w, https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/files\/2020\/07\/Cinq-320x320.jpg 320w\" data-sizes=\"auto\"><\/figure><a style=\"color: #FF7D00;\" href=\"https:\/\/cinqmusic.com\/apply\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Cinq Music Group\u2019s repertoire has won Grammy awards, dozens of Gold and Platinum RIAA certifications, and numerous No.1 chart positions on a variety of Billboard charts. <\/a><\/strong><strong><a style=\"color: #FF7D00;\" href=\"https:\/\/cinqmusic.com\/apply\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Its repertoire includes heavyweights such as Bad Bunny, Janet Jackson, Daddy Yankee, T.I., Sean Kingston, Anuel, and hundreds more.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MBW analysis of MRC Data figures shows a dramatic reduction in streaming market share for Top 10 hits<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":112382,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,7],"tags":[124425],"class_list":["post-112276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-news","tag-stat-of-the-week"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112276\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.musicbusinessworldwide.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}